A decline in international students opting for the US could provide a boost to UK universities, but trends also reveal more students remaining in their own region.
The decline in international student enrolments in the USA will accelerate in 2026, providing opportunities for the UK higher education sector, a British Council report has found.
In 2025, international student enrolments in the US fell by 17,000. This is comparable to the change during the first year of President Trump’s first term, when enrolments by international students fell by 16,000.
In the US President’s second year of his first term (2018) a further 20,000 fewer international students enrolled in US higher education (37,296 in total). The report authors predict a similar impact in 2026.
The drop in international student enrolments in the US has been most pronounced from India and China, although inbound mobility from other key markets in northeast Asia and the Middle East is also falling significantly.
UK universities stand to gain from the decline in international students choosing the US as a study destination, with more opportunities to recruit high-quality international students from a diverse range of countries, one of the key objectives of the Government’s recently announced International Education Strategy.
UK higher education could benefit from several regions, particularly South Asia. Through the first three quarters of 2025, the UK issued 26,000 more student visas to South Asian nationals than in the same period in 2024, far outpacing growth in other regions.
In Bangladesh and Nepal, the UK issued roughly twice as many student visas in 2025 than the year before. In Pakistan, issuance of UK student visas is at an all-time high, and in India there is substantial room for further growth in 2026.
The report outlines that South Asia will be the most important growth market for UK education in 2026. Student mobility from the region will rebound as issuance of UK student visas to applicants in the region picks up.
Researchers also point to a growing trend among international students, with young people choosing to stay at home, with many enrolling in UK Transnational Education (TNE) programmes in their own countries.
Since 2019, China’s Ministry of Education has approved TNE programmes or institutes with higher education institutes (HEIs) from 36 countries covering Europe, Asia, Oceania, and the Americas.
UK HEIs are well-positioned to benefit from greater policy support for TNE in China. Since 2019, the UK has ranked second among all countries in approvals of new TNE offerings and first by a significant margin in the number of new joint education institutes.
This overall trend suggests that the pool of international students in major English-speaking host destination countries may be shrinking, as many students who are discouraged from studying in the USA opt to stay home or remain in their own region.
The findings come from the British Council’s annual Five Trends report, which spotlights shifts in the international education landscape and forecasts future trends.
Maddalaine Ansell, Director Education, British Council, said: “Sustainable recruitment of high-quality international students from a diverse range of countries is a core ambition of the UK’s International Education Strategy.
“British Council research suggests that there is a reasonably positive environment for this to be achieved in 2026, as the UK is likely to gain a greater share of international students looking for study in an English-speaking country.
“At the same time, the continuing trend for more students, particularly from South Asia, opting to study in their own regions means we should continue to develop UK TNE programmes.”