Widespread support for closer transatlantic relations: Americans are overwhelmingly in favour of closer relations with Europe

Americans are notably more enthusiastic than Europeans about the prospect of closer transatlantic relations, with nine in ten supporting the idea. Even so, nearly two thirds of Europeans would welcome greater closeness to the USA. France is the exception with 53% of the population objecting to closer transatlantic relations, mainly because many French dislike US foreign policy and US culture or do not feel they have anything in common with Americans.

Support for closer transatlantic relations greatest amongst older population and Christians

It appears that those who have grown up among the diplomatic troubles of recent years may have been more affected by them than those who remember a period of more harmonious transatlantic relations - older people are more enthusiastic about closer transatlantic relations than the young. In terms of religion, all types of Christians (including Protestant and Catholic) are most in favour of closer cooperation. Muslims (the majority of whom are Turkish in this sample) are much more ambivalent, with 49% wanting to see a closer relationship and 45% against.

Few differences across gender, education and income

It is worth noting the factors that do not appear to influence the desire for closer transatlantic relations – looking across all the countries in the survey, levels of support are remarkably consistent according to gender, education and income.

Reasons for resisting closer relations with the USA or with Europe

Main reasons for Europeans resisting closer relations with USA: - US Government and US culture
The most frequent reason given by German respondents who say they are against closer transatlantic relations is dislike of US foreign policy. But more fundamental issues are also at play – significant minorities cite dislike of US culture and perceived personal characteristics of Americans (e.g. insularity, brashness).

As we have seen, the British feel closer to the Americans than most other European nations.  Cultural antipathy does not seem to be a major factor among those disinclined to see closer relations with the US – instead, the most common reason given is that the relationship with the USA is close enough and that there is already too much US influence.

The most common reason given by Turks who resist closer US relations is distrust of the US Government, mentioned by fully half of those who are opposed to greater closeness. This suggests more fundamental misgivings about the US and the way it engages with the rest of the world than the second most common reason - dislike of its foreign policy.

Europeans ‘too liberal’– the top reason given by Americans for opposing greater closeness with Europe
While some Europeans dislike American culture and personality, this does not tend to be cited as a reason for not wanting greater transatlantic closeness by Americans. Instead, some US citizens say they feel Europeans are too liberal, socialist or generally ‘different’. Others echo British concerns that the relationship is already close enough, or feel that America should solve its own problems rather than look to others.

Reasons for not wanting a closer relationship with the USA

.... In Germany

.....In the UK

Reasons for not wanting a Closer Relationship with Europe In the USA

Predictors of, and barriers to, the desire for greater transatlantic cooperation

A survey such as this gives us the opportunity to understand what factors lie behind people’s opinions. Through a process of advanced statistical analysis known as SEM (structured equation modeling), it is possible to identify what factors are the strongest predictors of – and barriers to – the desire for greater transatlantic cooperation. GlobeScan has performed this analysis for Americans, for the British, for the French and for Turks.

What influences opinion in the UK
In the UK, there appear to be a number of key factors that predict enthusiasm for transatlantic cooperation:
-A high opinion of US influence- the belief that the US plays a positive role in the world
-A low opinion of Arab influence – the belief that Arab countries play a negative role in the world
-A high opinion of the character of American people – the belief that they are not manipulative, selfish, aggressive etc

Perception that transatlantic cooperation is working however, does not emerge as a driver of enthusiasm for more of it.

Perhaps more of a surprise is that, after controlling for other factors that may have an influence, people in the UK with higher levels of education emerge as less likely to have positive perceptions of Americans - in particular, they are less likely to believe that they are reliable. As positive perceptions like these are a strong predictor of enthusiasm for greater transatlantic cooperation, such skepticism among the opinion-forming classes in the UK may prove to be a considerable obstacle to greater collaboration.

It also emerges that global optimism in the UK – the sense that the world is going in the right direction – is being driven by perception that the UK is a force for good in the world, and that cooperation between the USA and Europe is effective.

What influences opinion in the USA

As in the UK, enthusiasm for transatlantic cooperation among Americans does not depend on believing that the dialogue is currently effective in delivering policy advances.

Instead, Americans’ support for greater transatlantic cooperation with Europe appears to be influenced by:
-Positive perception of European (and specifically British) influence in the world
-Dissatisfaction with the role of the US

It is instructive that global optimism among Americans– the belief that the world is going in the right direction – is correlated with a positive view of not only the US’s, but also Arab countries’ influence. In other words, if the world is not going in the right direction, both Americans and Arab countries share the blame.

A major barrier to enthusiasm for transatlantic dialogue is a lack of trust and disbelief in the sincerity of Europeans – that they are, for instance, manipulative or selfish. This attitude is more apparent among Americans with lower levels of education, and also among older Americans.

What influences opinion in France

In France, unlike in the UK, desire for greater transatlantic cooperation is not linked to a perception that the USA is a force for good in the world. The key predictor of enthusiasm for closer links with America seems to be the belief that Americans are, notably, reliable. Those French who have a positive view of Americans are also more likely to be generally optimistic about the direction in which the world is going.

Negative perceptions of American traits have other impacts on French opinion. French assessment of the effectiveness of transatlantic efforts in peacekeeping operations is aggravated by the perception that Americans are manipulative and selfish. This suggests that if transatlantic peacekeeping efforts are felt to be failing, the French may see this as being partly a consequence of America acting in its own self interest.

It is apparent that France sees its role as being closely aligned with that of the EU (including the UK) – those who see the French as playing a positive role in the world are also likely to feel the same way about the EU. Conversely, despite the fact that the French are the least negative of all countries polled towards the role played by Arab countries, this role is still seen as being opposed to French influence.

Lastly, the French appear to see themselves as important players in transatlantic efforts to address global issues. The perceived success of these efforts, in French eyes, seems to require France to exert its influence, and for the US to be reliable.

What influences opinion in Turkey

Among Turks, some of the predictors of support for greater transatlantic cooperation are quite distinct from those in Western Europe and the USA. They include:

-Perceived effectiveness of transatlantic cooperation in educational exchange
-A high opinion of the character of American people – notably that they are reliable

Notably, neither the perception that America exerts a positive influence in the world, nor that the world is going in the right direction, seems to be a predictor of the desire among Turks to see greater engagement with the USA. Furthermore, effective cooperation in some areas actually appears to be a barrier to the desire for closer engagement – the perception that transatlantic cooperation in managing migration is working appears to be a predictor of negative perceptions of Americans – notably that they are manipulative – which in turn appears to inhibit the desire to build closer transatlantic relationships. This suggests that improved educational links may be seen as benefiting Turks, while more effective cooperation over managing migration will do the opposite.

There is also evidence that Turkey aligns itself more closely with the East than with Europe and the US – the perception of Turkey’s positive role and Arab countries’ positive role are strongly correlated.