Many observers see the future of transatlantic relations as resting on the decisions of two monolithic “Great Powers” – the United States and a rising European Union. The simplicity of this vision of two colossal chess players locked in a game of international politics may be attractive. However, adopting this elegant assumption today might well blind us to the actual forces driving transatlantic relations in the coming decades. The US and the EU are not monolithic actors, but political entities that encompass a myriad of sub-national political players. Furthermore, when the make-up of these players changes, the foreign policy of states can change as well. This understanding fundamentally alters our predictions for transatlantic relations. Among other things, it leads us to ask how the changing ethnic currents in the US may determine its foreign policy towards the EU, and what this means for long-term transatlantic relations.
Historically, the US has experienced rapid fluctuations in its ethnic make-up due to relatively lax immigration policies. It stands to reason that, once certain ethnic groups grow past a tipping point, their political voice will produce policy changes. Today, for instance, we see the accruing of political power by a growing Hispanic-American population. Initially, the impact on transatlantic relations may seem obscure. However, the picture changes when we consider the effect of increased Hispanic political power on US foreign policy towards Latin America. That is, a growing Hispanic population could tilt the US towards a policy of greater rapprochement with Latin America. This scenario could affect the EU’s clear economic stake in the region, mainly through Spain. The latter has capitalized on its centuries-old cultural linkage with the region, and today its economic ties with Latin American rival those of the US. Of course, an increased US presence in Latin America might involve some competition with Spain. However, it is also possible for Spain to use any increased US presence in the region as an opportunity to indirectly strengthen its economic ties with the US and nurture good relations with the Hispanic-American community. Healthy relations with this community, together with political and economic leverage in Latin America, would give Spain considerable bargaining power vis-a-vis the US. Moreover, the EU could benefit from Spain’s liaising position.
Nevertheless, it is mistaken to think that Spain and the EU will ‘automatically’ influence the US. Instead, Europe needs to adopt policies towards Latin America that the growing Hispanic-American population will find agreeable. This is certainly something for Spanish policymakers to consider. After the socialist party (PSOE) defeated the liberal-conservatives (PP) in March 2004, the new Spanish government has opted for a policy of further engagement with Latin American far left-wing governments. This represented a move away from the Atlanticist position of the Aznar government, and paved the way towards increased dialogue with those governments. In the future, however, Spain would do well to fine-tune such dialogue to take into account the concerns of the Hispanic-American community, especially Cuban-Americans and recent Venezuelan immigrants. With balanced policymaking, it is possible for Spain to devise a foreign policy towards Latin America that promotes both social welfare and free-market reforms in the region. Such a balancing act may prevent the unnecessary antagonism of potential allies for Spain in the Hispanic-American community.
In addition, this opportunity for Spain to engage the Hispanic-American minority is not open-ended. Until now the Hispanic-American community has grown in numbers, but not necessarily achieved significant political power as a whole. Until Hispanic lobbies become better-organized and more powerful, American policymaking probably will not reflect many of their interests. Furthermore, even if they make their influence felt, Hispanic-Americans may not remain a most influential minority forever. The Hispanic-American community still grows, but in the coming decades its influence may be diluted as other migrant communities grow and make their voices heard as well. In other words, to maximize their engagement of the Hispanic-American community, Spain and the EU should start preparing for when this community will have a prominent and distinct voice. A failure to do this will limit Europe’s ability to take advantage of this significant demographic change.
Finally, it is also important to consider the impact of these future scenarios on the political dynamics inside Europe. If Spain plays it right, it could use its links with Latin America to enhance its role in transatlantic relations, and thus increase its political capital within the EU. Quite possibly, as its involvement in Latin America becomes more important to the US, Spain’s voice may come to counterbalance that of France and Germany. Therefore, other EU member-states will have to consider the Spanish position when it comes to negotiations with the US. In addition, Spain’s increased leverage within the EU will also make the former more politically attractive to the US. Instead of just relying on its “special relationship” with the United Kingdom, in the future the US could also consider Spain as a serious partner when it comes to transatlantic politics. This should provide a continuous ‘cycle of influence’ for Spain in the coming decades – assuming, of course, that Spanish leaders have the foresight to use this opportunity.
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