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In the second of our series on possible favourites for the Big Prize in Germany in the summer, we look at the candidates from southern, 'Latin' Europe.
Italy are traditionally seen as giants in World Cup history; they have been present in 15 editions and have won it three times. If we look closer at the statistics, however, we see that two of those wins were around 70 years ago (1934 in Italy and 1938 in France) and the other over two decades ago (1982 in Spain). More recently, gli Azzurri have not done so well, apart from coming third on home soil in 1990 and being beaten on penalties by Brazil in the Final in 1994 (USA). However, their record shows that they have won 39 of their 70 games and lost just 17, and it is this latter statistic that perhaps explains best the awe that the Italians still inspire in opponents. They are always very, very difficult to beat; the defensive tactical system of catenaccio (meaning 'door-bolt') was developed by Italian teams in the 60s, and although it has fallen into disuse in its purest form, elements of it remain, especially in Italian football's collective psyche. It comes as no surprise, then, that arguably the most admired players in the Italian squad are in defence and defensive midfield: like Buffon in goal, Nesta and Cannavaro in the centre of defence and Gattuso in front of them, with in midfield the neat Pirlo and the experienced Totti (returning from injury) creating chances for the attacking pair of Luca Toni and António Gilardino up front. Although Italy qualified with ease from their group (finishing five points clear of Norway), they will be in Group E in Germany along with Ghana, the USA and the Czech Republic. It is a tough group, but expect to see Italy at least through to the last 16.
France have played in 11 World Cups, but it is in recent decades that the sheer quality of their play and exponents has most impressed. That on-paper quality has not always been translated into results, however: there was the disastrous showing in 2002, where they finished bottom in the group phase, and in 1994 and 1990 they did not even qualify for the Finals. But as hosts in 1998 they sent the country into delirium with a superb tournament, culminating in a 3-0 victory over the mighty Brazil in the Final. Players from that triumph that survive include Patrick Vieira, Lilian Thuram, Robert Pires, David Trezeguet, Thierry Henry and Zinedine Zidane. The latter two, possibly the two great stars of the French show, had different seasons in the run-up to the summer: guiding Arsenal to the Champions League Final, Henry looked very sharp, while Zidane's Real Madrid stuttered and his form suffered, not helped by injury. This will be Zizou's last major tournament, though, as he retires afterwards, so we can expect him to want to go out with a bang. France had serious problems in qualifying in what should have been a relatively easy group (Israel, Switzerland, the Republic of Ireland and the Faroe Islands), and had to bring Zidane, Thuram and Makelelé out of international 'retirement' to help clinch qualification. Having said that, France have what looks like a comfortable ride through the group phase, with Switzerland again, South Korea and Togo. Do not be surprised if they are there or thereabouts come 9 July, the day of the Berlin Final.
Spain are perennial underachievers at international level. Like France, they have been in 11 World Cups, but their best position was a 4th place, way back in 1950. They have been ever-present since 1978, though, which attests to their regularity. In 2002 they got as far as the quarter-finals after coming top of their group in the first phase, but in qualifying this time, they needed to beat Slovakia in the play-off to book their ticket. The Spanish squad is a good mixture of youth and experience, no more so than up front: Fernando Torres of Atlético Madrid is just 22 but has long been established in the Spanish first team. Alongside him is likely to be the ‘veteran’ Raúl, despite a poor season for his club. In fact, the Real Madrid striker is just 28, but he has already played in 92 internationals, scoring a Spanish record of 42 goals. With a more determined and concentrated attitude than in some past competitions, Spain may go a long way, not least because they appear to be in an ‘accessible’ group: Ukraine, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia.
Of this group of southern European countries, Portugal has the least World Cup experience. It may be hard to believe, but the Selecção has appeared in the final stages on only three occasions: their best showing was in 1966, when Eusébio helped them to reach the semi-finals, only to be beaten by eventual winners England. The country’s two other outings were ignominious affairs: in 1986, they went out at the group stage amid bitter wrangling over, ironically, win bonuses. And in the last World Cup, João Pinto’s infamous punching of the referee in the decisive group game against South Korea coincided with the team crashing out of the competition. In the qualification phase running up to this World Cup they were unbeaten, with three draws and nine wins, one of which a 7-1 mauling of Russia at the Estádio da Luz. A TV commercial currently being aired in the country shows the team returning from Germany, parading through the streets in an open-topped bus and brandishing the Cup. With players of the calibre of Ricardo Carvalho, Deco, Figo, Pauleta and Cristiano Ronaldo lining up, the idea behind the commercial might not be as far-fetched as all that.
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World Cup Favourites (North Europe) and World Cup Favourites (South America).
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