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With the ten hottest years on record occurring since the beginning of the 1990s, it is clear that the earth’s climate is changing.Indeed, 1998 was the warmest year globally since data collection began in 1861. The question is why.

Major contributors

Greenhouse gas
A major contributor to this rapid rise in temperatures is greenhouse gas emissions. A balance between energy coming in from the sun in the form of visible radiation (sunlight) and energy constantly being emitted from the surface of the earth to space determines the temperature of the earth. When the infrared radiation is absorbed by gases in the atmosphere, some of the heat is directed back to earth, creating huge environmental concerns.

Aerosols
Small particles called aerosols are formed from emissions from various forms of transport and power stations. They scatter sunlight back out to space and have a cooling effect on the climate.

What is likely to happen?

Sea levels are expected to rise by over 40 cm by the 2080s. The melting ice will pose a huge threat to the existence of some small island states and put millions of people at risk.

Asia will be hit by extreme flooding. Some 80 million people in Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar, and to a lesser degree Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, will be at risk.

Africa is expected to experience significant reductions in cereal yields, as are the Middle East and India, because of flooding.

China and Central Asia could witness widespread malaria outbreaks by the 2080s. In total 290 million people could be affected.

Water resources for drinking will be affected and lives will be put at risk by increased frequency of drought and flooding. Coastal areas will suffer from salination as sea levels rise.

By the 2070s large parts of northern Brazil and central southern Africa could lose their tropical forests because of reduced rainfall and increased temperatures. This loss of vegetation will add to further carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere.

How the UK is affected

The average annual temperatures across the UK may rise by between 2° and 3.5°C by the 2080s, with the degree of warming dependent on future levels of greenhouse gas emissions. There will be greater warming in the south and east of the UK than in the north and west. Most of the warming will be in summer and autumn.

High summer temperatures will become more frequent and very cold winters will become increasingly rare. For example, a very hot August, such as that experienced in 1995 may occur as often as two years in three by the 2080s.

Rainfall amounts and frequency will also change. Winters will become wetter and summers drier. In the south-east, summer rainfall may decline by 50 per cent by the 2080s and the amount of snow could decline by 60 to 90 per cent.

Sea levels will continue to rise and could be between 26 and 86cm above the current level in southeast England by the 2080s. Extreme high water levels could become 10 to 20 times more frequent at some east coast locations by the 2080s.