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There is a quotation, very famous in Portugal, from the FC Porto captain and Portugal defender João Pinto, now retired. Asked to predict the scoreline of a game, he replied: "Predictions? - Only at the end."
Of course, predicting precisely the outcome of something like football which is, by its very nature, unpredictable, is a near-impossible task. But hundreds of thousands, if not millions, will try to do just that with the upcoming World Cup, perhaps informally with friends, perhaps more seriously, betting their hard-earned cash on who they believe to be the favourites. So who are the 'favourites' for Germany? This and the next two articles in the series will try to sort out the men from the boys by zone - this time northern Europe.
As hosts, Germany have not had to qualify. In fact, this can be a double-edged sword: while they have been freer to experiment and have not felt the pressure of qualification, this very pressure can be important to keep up levels of concentration and commitment and to build up momentum. A heavy 1-4 defeat to Italy in a friendly at the beginning of March was a stark warning that all was not well in the German camp, and criticism of coach Jürgen Klinsmann was growing. Germany's star midfielder Michael Ballack said "The slaps in our faces following the Italy match were deserved and now it's time for us to show a reaction." The reaction came at the end of March with a 4-1 home defeat of the USA, which took the pressure off Klinsmann. But the USA were under-strength on the night, so that although the result will have stoked up confidence, not too much should perhaps be read into it. Klinsmann has said "It's the most talented generation of German footballers in 15 years", and there are certainly some stars that we can look forward to seeing: the enormously talented Ballack, bustling forward Schweinsteiger, Podolski and Kuranyi, but the defence, with an ageing Oliver Kahn in goal, is likely to be the team's Achilles heel. Germany's group contains Poland, Costa Rica and Ecuador, so theoretically they are likely to make it to the second phase. The weight of the country's World Cup history - 15 presences and three titles - may help to carry them a long way in the tournament, and home advantage will be like playing with twelve men. But the sentiment expressed by a banner held up during the USA game - "Wir wird Weltmeister" ['We're going to be World Champions'] - looks a little hopeful.
Klinsmann's comment about the current generation of German footballers could be echoed by his England counterpart Sven Goran Eriksson, but instead of 15 years, the Swede could say 40. The current England squad is, in terms of individual talent and strength in depth, certainly comparable to the one that lifted the Jules Rimet Cup in England in 1966 and reached the quarter-finals in Mexico in 1970, where they were knocked out by their eternal rivals, the then 'West' Germany. In midfield they have Frank Lampard, recently short-listed for World Player of the Year and Joe Cole, immensely improved under José Mourinho at Chelsea, along with the powerful Stephen Gerrard and captain David Beckham. Up front there is the phenomenon called Wayne Rooney, who could be one of the figures of the tournament (for good ... or bad if he lets his heart and temper rule his head) but England may be without Michael Owen, battling against injury. Doubts about England going all the way are fuelled by an irregular defence (despite the excellence of its elements, at least on paper) and lack of a world-class goalkeeper. In qualifying, they left it until the last game (a win over Poland) to clinch it, and had to suffer the humiliation of a defeat at minnows Northern Ireland in the process. There is also the question of possible disruption behind the scenes with the various scandals surrounding coach Eriksson and the certainty that he will be leaving after the summer. England have been in 11 World Cups and have won it once. It is possible but by no means likely that they can double the latter tally.
The last northern European country with a realistic chance of winning the big prize is Holland. They were unbeaten in qualification, with 12 wins, two draws and 27 goals scored. They have two forwards who have shone in recent years in England: Robben (Chelsea) and van Nistelrooy (Manchester United), although the latter has recently gone through a lean period at the famous English club, and then there is Dirk Kuyt of Dutch side Feyenoord. Holland's midfield and defence is solid and has experience, with the likes of van Bommel, Cocu, Bouma and van Bronckhorst, while between the posts they have the veteran Van der Sar, ever-present for Manchester United. One of Holland's frailties may be the knowledge that historically they are the 'nearly men' of the World Cup: they have been in the Final twice (in 1974 and 1978) but lost out both times (to 'West' Germany and Argentina respectively). They are also in a relatively tough group in the first phase in the form of Argentina, Ivory Coast and Serbia & Montenegro. But they seem to have a solid squad and a surprisingly astute coach in greenhorn Marco van Basten, and they will have an enormous following, being as they are neighbours to Germany; not at all a long shot.
But two countries that are long shots are Sweden and the Czech Republic. The former have been in ten World Cups and were finalists once, but that was as long ago as 1958. They always threaten to do great things, but only seem to manage to go part of the way. They scored 30 goals in qualifying, including an aggregate 13-0 over Malta, but that wasn't enough to finish above Croatia, who they lost to twice, both times by 0-1. Their current squad has great quality in the front line, with Ibrahimovic and the veteran Larsson, ably supported by Ljünberg; but that's where the obvious quality ends, so that Sweden might realistically only expect to get as far as the last 16. The Czech Republic, on the other hand, are dripping in talent: the midfield and attack boasts Poborsky, Rosicky, Nedved, Baros and the giant Köller, who scored nine goals in qualifying, while in goal they have Petr Cech, arguably one of the best in the world in his position. They scored 35 goals in qualifying, including scorelines of 8-1 and 6-1 against Andorra and Macedonia, respectively, but came second to Holland. They reached the semi-finals at Euro 2004, and have eight presences in World Cup Final phases (as Czechoslovakia), with two final appearances way back in 1934 and 1962. If you are a betting person, the Czech Republic might be worth a small wager.
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Do you agree with our predictions? Write and let us know.
If you enjoyed this article, you might like to see World Cup Favourites (South Europe) and World Cup Favourites (South America).
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