In 2008, the Thai economy is forecasted to expand by four to five per cent. The recovery in domestic demand is expected to offset a slowdown in exports. Domestic conditions will be more favourable, with such supporting factors as lower interest rates, unemployment and budget deficit in the fiscal year 2008 and political certainty. However, downside risks of the forecast are associated with rising and volatile oil prices and world economic slowdown. Inflation is projected at three to 3.5 per cent.
Thailand's population of 68 million remains predominantly rural-based, as does the economy, although the government has embarked on an ambitious programme to improve economic competitiveness. This programme will focus on five key economic sectors: food; hospitality and tourism; IT and software; fashion; and the automotive industry.
The overwhelming focus of economic activity and subsequent overseas study demand (96 per cent) comes from the 7.5 million inhabitants of metropolitan Bangkok. The remaining major cities of Chiang Mai in the north, Had Yai in the south and Khon Kaen in the north-east have ambitious economic development plans.
Studying abroad has been a tradition for upper- and middle-income groups in Thailand, particularly those who choose the UK. In 2006, the total number of student visas issued for the five leading English-speaking destination countries was 18,010, which increased by 7.3 per cent from the year 2005. The number of UK student visas issued grew by 9.14 per cent from 2005 to 2006.
A new central university admissions system was implemented in the 2006 academic year. The system conforms to education reform and is based on the principle of enabling individual students to study the programme of their liking. This will, consequently, motivate students to pursue life-long learning.
In February 2007, the Minister of Education, Wijit Srisa-arn, introduced the initiative to push the Autonomous University Bill and forced some major public universities to become autonomous, such as Chulalongkorn University, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL), Chiang Mai University, etc. Even though there were very strong arguments from university staff and some groups of students who asked for the re-consideration or more time to prepare for the change, the passage of the bills was finally approved by the National Legislative Assembly in November 2007. Six bills have been approved for six universities to become autonomous: Mahidol University; Burapha University; Thaksin University; Chulalongkorn University; King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL); and Chiang Mai University.
The main factors driving the demand for UK postgraduate education are poor local provision coupled with the attraction of the UK's one-year programmes.
The demand for private English language programmes, both in-country and overseas, continues to grow rapidly, especially for children aged five to 14. The number of international schools has trebled to over 50, attracting over 100,000 students in the last three years.
Competitor activities are significant, with Australia being the most aggressive, followed by the USA, Canada and New Zealand. Student numbers going into Australia's HE sector declined by 6.3 per cent in the year 2005 / 2006 but sharply increased for the vocational and English language sectors by 17.6 per cent and 18.2 per cent respectively. Canadian numbers are low. The majority of Thai students going to the USA were students in work and travel and student exchange programmes.
The Thai International Education Consultants Association (TIECA) has more than 70 member agencies. This is in addition to two to three UK expatriate-managed agencies which are the most dominant players. The increased representation of UK institutions by TIECA members has been significant in the growing number of students coming to the UK. TIECA has improved its image locally with a number of high-profile member expulsions, increasing both the confidence of parents and the British Council in their ability to ensure standards and codes of practice for the industry.
No official recognition is given to overseas providers delivering distance learning programmes that are not accredited by local education institutions. However, a significant number of UK and other programmes exist that do not conform to this regulation.
Chiang Mai is located in the north of Thailand. Rapid changes, from both domestic and international influences, are increasingly creating new economic opportunities in Chiang Mai, particularly in the areas of information technology, and hospitality and tourism. To support these changes, several state sector schools have become bilingual with English programmes and there has been a corresponding growth of Thai students in international schools in the north. The number of English language schools is also increasing rapidly in Chiang Mai and there is a growing summer language programme abroad. Although there is strong competition in overseas studies (i.e. from the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Canada), Chiang Mai is still a centre of steady interest in UK higher education, predominantly stemming from Chiang Mai University and expanding to the upper north.
Khon Kaen (north-eastern region) people are also aware of the importance of an overseas education and the need for improved English language skills in the local economy. A wide variety of education institutions can be found in the main cities in this region to cope with the demands from students. There are several public higher education institutions, including Khon Kaen University, with approximately 17,000 students (including 1,700 postgraduates and about 70 students from overseas), Mahasarakham University with more than 20,000 students and a number of scholarships at PhD level, and the Rajabhat Institute of Ubon Ratchathani.
Thailand is predominantly a postgraduate and ELT market (specifically summer schools and preparation programmes for postgraduate study). These two sectors account for over 60 per cent of all student visas issued.
There is considerable room for growth in the postgraduate sector, which has seen steady growth in one-year taught programmes. The is an increase in the number of governmental scholarships, as well as a growth in the self-funded sector for doctoral programmes.
The ELT sector also demonstrates scope for growth in the March / April language holiday period for 14 to 19 year-olds.
The British Council in Thailand operates four centres in Bangkok and one in Chiang Mai. Education is a priority sector for the British Council's work in Thailand, covering partnership programmes with the Ministry of Education in schools, and in vocational and higher education. This complements a substantial education promotion programme marketing UK education; and relationship management through a UK alumni network of students of English or students who have attended language holidays in the UK. Over the last two years, the British Council has embarked on an ambitious growth strategy, seeking to extend its activities throughout Thailand with the opening and development of partnership centres in the north, north-east and south of Thailand.
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